Modelación Bioeconómica Y Análisis De Riesgo De La Pesquería De Langosta Espinosa Panulirus Argus (Latreille, 1804) En El Golfo De Batabanó, Cuba
Puga Millán, Rafael
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Bioeconomic modeling and risk assessment of the spiny lobster, Panulirus argus (Latreille, 1804), fishery in the Gulf of Batabanó, Cuba. The spiny lobster Panulirus argus is the major fishery resource in Cuba, which produced an average revenue of about 70 million US$ a year during 2000-2004. There are 1,280 fishermen and 7,840 workers linked to administrative, industrial and fishery activities in lobster exploitation, which makes a total of 9,120 persons who economically depend on this resource. In the Gulf of Batabanó, where 60% of the catch is obtained, the economic rent constitutes 74% of the revenue, which represented profits about 35.2 million US$ a year as an average over the last five years. Because of its economic relevance, updating and in-depth studies on exploitation status and abundance of the resource are needed to assess management options in spiny lobster fishery. The following data was used to study bioeconomic dynamics in lobster exploitation in the Gulf of Batabanó: catch from 1963-2004, fishing effort in fishing days from 1974 to 2004, price and cost from 2002 to 2004 and biological parameters of the species such as growth, natural mortality rate, maturity and fecundity. A cohort analysis based on length composition and a sequential population analysis based on catch-at-age structure were applied to obtain yearly data by age and length, of population size, fishing mortality rate, biomass and egg production, as well as total values of revenue, cost and economic profits linked to exploitation and marketing of the species. Predictive models were performed and bioeconomic reference points were estimated to evaluate consequences of different management scenarios, with alternatives in fishing effort and minimum legal size (age), taking into account the risk due to uncertainty in recruitment and catchability. Fishing effort expressed in fishing day has significantly varied related to boat number, with fluctuations due to economic conditions and to length of close season. The fishing mortality rate, with values between 0.18 and 0.50, depends significantly on fishing effort; this rate reached its highest level before 1987 when exploitation rate was over 50%. Currently, effort and fishing mortality rate have maintained reduced levels in correspondence with the close season extension of 90 to120 days since 2002. Catch in this area was maintained around 7,000 tons in the 1980´s, to decrease at 5,000 tons after 1990 and to 4,362 between 2000 and 2004, period in which catchability has shown great variability, possibly due to an increase in frequency of hurricanes that directly affected the area in this period. Recruitment and total size of the population have decreased since 1983 and 1984, respectively, to maintain low and relatively stable values during the period between 1991 and 2004. The relationships between the number of eggs and recruitment – weak but significant – suggest the existence of density-dependent mechanisms that control abundance of recruits, possibly by the influence of environmental conditions in coastal nursery areas, through food and/or habitat availability. If recruitment continues at the observed level during 1991-2004, catch volumes similar to previous years like the 1980´s should not be expected. An option to increase revenues, catch and rent in a sustainable way, according to the current state of the resource, would be to gradually increase the minimum legal size and fishing effort up to 81 mm carapace length (CL) and 22,110 fishing days, respectively, with little risk of exceeding the limit reference point of 25% spawning potential rate. Anyway, it is necessary to increase the minimum legal size to at least of 74 mm CL. Due to recruitment and catchability variability, catch of around 4,444 and 5,615 tons and rent between 32.4 and 43.7 million US$ should be expected. The permitted effort in a year needs to be determined with care so as to optimize the benefits from the P. argus fishery in a sustainable way, taking into account the status of the resource, the objectives for the fishery and the needs of the interest groups. An economic tool as developed in the present study, is essential in fisheries management and maximizing the rent over an indefinite time horizon must be made the primary goal where economic efficiency is the over-riding policy objective.
- 2. Tesis (CIP)